More Analysis of USDA Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports

The USDA released its Planted Acreage Report on Thursday, and at least one commodity market expert says there were some surprises. Joe Vaclavik, President of Standard Grain in Tennessee, says the unexpected numbers came in soybeans and wheat.

“There are some surprises. So, the corn acreage number was very much close to expectations at 89.9 million, very close to what the trade had expected. The surprising acreage would be in soybeans and, maybe, spring wheat to a lesser extent. Soybean acreage number came in two million below the average trade guess at 88. 3 (million) while the trade was looking for 90.4.”

He says this year’s Acreage Report comes with a caveat. Vaclavik; “USDA, at the very top of the report, said that they had trouble, essentially, surveying the Dakotas and Minnesota and that they would re-survey those states during the month of July and then report the results in August. So, I think we kind of knew going in that, up North, it was going to be difficult to tally those acreage numbers. When you look at North Dakota, in particular, we saw a pretty drastic decline in both corn and soybean acreage.”

There were some surprises in the wheat numbers too according to Vaclavik.

“Spring wheat and durum were both above the average trade guess. Spring wheat, in particular, at 11.1 (million) was like 200,000 above the average trade guess, or a little bit less than that, I guess, but it was above the average trade guess and still below March intentions. Durum was above March intentions and the average trade guess, so maybe a little bit of switching in the north out of corn and soybeans into spring wheat, durum, those sort of things, which I guess is not totally surprising.”

He was one of several market analysts who expected to see more corn acres in this month’s report. “You look at the map of where acreage was essentially won and lost versus March, and corn acreage was increased versus March intentions in Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, unchanged in Illinois, Indiana, higher in Ohio, and drastically lower North Dakota and South Dakota. Corn acreage versus March was down 17 percent in North Dakota versus March and down five percent in South Dakota. There were some instances, in some places, where corn acreage was higher than March, but I thought you’d see more of that in Illinois and Iowa and Indiana, and we didn’t.”

The USDA’s Acreage Report shows farmers have planted 89.9 million acres of corn, down four percent from last year. Soybean planted area for 2022 is estimated at 88.3 million acres, one percent higher than last year. The all-wheat planted area is estimated to be 47.1 million acres, one percent higher than last year. If realized, this represents the fifth-lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. Corn stocks, in all positions, totaled 4.35 billion bushels on June 1, up six percent from last year. Soybeans stored in all positions totaled 971 million bushels, up 26 percent from last year. Old crop-all wheat in all positions totaled 660 million bushels, 22 percent lower than 2021.

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