Analysis of the September Hogs and Pigs Report

The USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report released at the end of last week showed inventory was down one percent compared to last year with 73.8 million head. Altin Kalo is the chief economist with Steiner Consulting Group analyzed the bullish report.

“Because most of the numbers that came out were on the lower end or outside of the range of the pre report estimates.”

Market hog inventory was 67.6 million head – down one percent from last year and up two percent from last quarter. Kalo explains how the survey works for hogs going to market.

“USDA tells us, all right, how many hogs should we expect to come to market in the next three-six months? And they break it down by category, you know, what’s the weight of those hogs, you know, how many hogs do we have that are 180 pounds and over? We probably have run through most of that supply because they probably came to market in September.”

He said they are working to put the hogs and pigs marketing number in context.

“Hog slaughter should be running at about 1.5 percent less than it was a year ago. October, early-mid-November, again, it’s not precise, the numbers should be down about 1.2 percent from a year ago. And then December-January-February, which, at least based on this survey, you’d expect the slaughter numbers to run down about 1.6 percent less.”

Fewer hogs coming to market are a function of the smaller breeding herd and lower productivity. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.02 million head– down one percent from last year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd.

Visit USDA’s website for the complete Hogs and Pigs report.

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