Brazil could be looking at some big crop numbers this year. Ryan Martin, an ag meteorologist from Warsaw, Indiana, says the weather has been very good for growing crops.
“Brazil is probably in about as good a shape as anybody could have hoped for going into this year. I think that the crop is going to be just fine as we move forward. They’ve gotten timely rains and skirted some of the most extreme heat. So, Brazil, in my estimation – particularly the key producing areas of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, and even Minas Gerais – is picking up decent moisture here over the course of this season so far. We’ve talked about it off-air, but no news is good news when it comes to this kind of situation in Brazil. And so, I think that the focal point on the weather needs to go a little bit farther south.”
Argentina is struggling with intense heat and little moisture.
“So far, it’s been a dry season in Argentina. We’re talking about backing up corn and soybean production. I agree with that. There were some good rains coming out of the New Year’s holiday weekend in Argentina. But with heat reemerging here in the next seven to 14 days, a lot of what moisture fell is going to evaporate quickly, and we only see minor precipitation here in the short term. So, my area of concern is going to continue to be Argentina on a drier scale. I think we’re looking at crop conditions worsening there likely as we head closer to harvest.”
There’s one weather feature to keep an eye on regarding the potential for improvement in Argentina. The question is how fast it takes place.
“It appears as though maybe the La Nina is slightly weakening right now in the Central Pacific. If that’s the case, you would expect Argentina to see a little bit of a break here in this hot and dry dome. But at this point, if we’re just starting to see the effects of the weakening in La Niña, we’re still saying that most of the break in this pattern is going to come after the crop comes out. So, my concern is that we are just too far behind the eight ball to see a lot of improvement in Argentina. Rains now have to be talked about as basically stopping additional losses, and that’s what the market is going to look at here between now and the end of January, early February.”