USDA’s Economic Research Service publishes its price forecasts in the monthly Food Price Outlook report. The FPO forecasts food-at-home prices will increase by 8.6 percent in 2023, with a prediction interval of 5.6 to 11 percent.
Forecasts now include a midpoint and a prediction interval to represent the expected price change and range of likely prices. The prediction intervals vary. They begin wider due to uncertainty at the start of the year and then narrow as forecasts incorporate more months of observed data. In 2023, fresh fruit prices are predicted to experience little change at 0.1 percent with a prediction interval of -5.6 to 6.4 percent.
Overall, food prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than they did in 2022 but remain above historical average rates. Food-at-home prices grew 11.4 percent in 2022, the largest annual increase since 1974, compared with a historical average increase of 2.5 percent from 2003-2022.