Monday, April 22, 2024
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USDA Ups Import Forecast, Cuts Export Forecast

USDA has cut its fiscal year 2024 farm export forecast for all major U.S. foreign markets, including number one China.

China continues to be the top U.S. ag export market, but USDA economist Shawn Arita says the department’s China forecast for the fiscal year starting October 1st is down by three billion dollars

Arita says, “Due to some of the weaker outlook from soybeans, dairy and beef. China is (still) projected to remain our largest export market for fiscal year 2024. We are forecasting 30 billion dollars for this coming year of exports to that market.”

As for number 2, Mexico, and number 3, Canada? “We’re forecasting Mexico at 28.2 billion dollars and Canada at 27.5 billion dollars,” according to Arita.

Meantime, Arita tells USDA Radio that ag imports are forecast to reach a record 199-and-a-half billion dollars next fiscal year, but in non-competitive areas. He says, “Imports of products like bananas, pineapples, mangos, coffee, tropical zone products that we don’t produce really, here in the U.S. We also have a lot of counter-seasonal products we import that sort of complement our own growing cycles. Think of things like blueberries.”

Add to that, processed foods like alcoholic beverages. The U.S. had back-to-back record exports during the last two fiscal years, reaching $196 billion in fiscal 2022 with new records in seven of the top ten markets, including China, Mexico, and Canada.

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