U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat exports are forecast down 10 million bushels this month to 155 million bushels, the lowest since records began in 1973-1974.
HRW supplies have seen a long-term downturn in U.S. acreage as corn and soybeans gained acres in many locations. International wheat competition has also surged, resulting in exports of this class being less competitive on the global market. U.S. HRW supplies have recently been affected by significant drought in consecutive years, which has dented crop prospects and contributed to exports of this class being uncompetitive with other suppliers like Russia and the European Union.
Historically, HRW was the leading class of American exports, but this year it’s forecast to be the third-largest class of U.S. exports, surpassed by both Hard Red Spring and White Wheat. Production of HRS and White is down year-over-year with lower yields, but drought hasn’t hit those classes as hard as HRW.