The USDA released the September 1 Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary Reports last week. Todd Hultman, grain market analyst for DTN, says the September 1 corn stocks were lower than expected.
Hultman says, “The new total, September one corn stocks – and by the way, these are the ending stocks for the 2022 to 2023 season that just ended on August 31 – the new total is 1.361 billion bushels. That’s less than expected, and it’s down 91 million bushels from USDA’s August estimate of ending stocks. So, this is a bullish finding for corn at 91 million bushels less than what they thought of back in August.”
The corn total was the second-lowest number in almost a decade. “Forty-four percent of the corn stalks that are still held on September 1 were on the farm, so almost half of those corn stalks are still held on the farm. This is a very similar ending stocks final as we saw the previous two years, so I believe it’s the second-lowest nine years for corn,” according to Hultman.
He talks about the soybean estimate as well saying, “The soybean ending stocks estimate comes in a little higher for September first at 268 million bushels. This will be the second-lowest ending stocks in seven years. It’s up 18 million bushels from the August estimate. It’s also a little higher than was expected. The trade was looking for 244 million bushels. Twenty-seven percent of the soybean stocks being held at the end of the season were on the farm, so most of it’s in commercial hands, fair to say.”
Hultman also talked about USDA’s wheat stocks number. “Now in wheat, this is not an ending stocks figure. This is total amount of wheat on September 1 after the first quarter of demand in the new season, and the total came up to 1.78 billion bushels here. This is basically the same level of wheat supplies that we had the previous two years, so all three September one wheat supplies came in very similar there. Thirty-four percent of this year’s wheat stocks are held on farm.”