(WASHINGTON D.C.) — On Thursday, USDA lowered corn and soybean yield estimates slightly below trade expectations in the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report.
Corn yield came in at 173 bushels per acre (bpa) which was down from 173.8 bpa last month. Soybean yield came in at 49.6 bpa which was down from 50.1 bpa last month.
Corn production is forecast at 15.064 billion bushels, down 70 million. Corn supplies are forecast at 16.451 billion bushels, a decline of 160 million bushels from last month, with lower production and beginning stocks. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on lower supply. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2023/24 are lowered 110 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel.
Soybean production is forecast at 4.1 billion bushels, down 42 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 82.8 million acres. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced 24 million bushels.
Soybean exports are reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion with increased competition from South America. Soybean crush is projected at 2.3 billion bushels, up 10 million, driven by higher soybean meal exports and soybean oil domestic demand. Soybean oil domestic use is raised in line with an increase for 2022/23. With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 220 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is unchanged at $12.90 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 63 cents per pound, respectively.
The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for higher supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised 85 million bushels, primarily on higher production as reported in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary, released September 29. Domestic use is raised 30 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report released September 29 indicated a higher year-toyear increase for first quarter (June-August) domestic disappearance than previously expected. Exports remain at 700 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes.
Projected ending stocks are raised by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The seasonaverage farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
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