(WASHINGTON D.C.)– On Friday, USDA released it’s updated supply and demand estimates with the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
USDA did raise U.S. corn exports and lowered ending stocks on the December report to the tune of a 25 million bushel increase in exports to 2.1 billion. There were no other use changes which took corn ending stocks down 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushel carryout. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.85 per bushel.
U.S. wheat ending stocks also dropped by 25 million bushels on a higher U.S. wheat export number. Soft Red Winter wheat exports are raised 30 million bushels to 175 million, the largest SRW exports since 2013/14. White wheat exports are lowered 5 million bushels to 155 million on a slow pace of sales and shipments. Projected all wheat ending stocks are
reduced by 25 million bushels to 659 million, still up 13 percent from last year.
On the soybean side, U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023/24 are unchanged from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged at $12.90 per bushel.
On the global side, there were very minor changes to corn, soybean and wheat ending stock projections. USDA pegged Brazil’s soybean crop at 161 million metric tons (MMT), which is down 2 MMT from November but still about 1 MMT above trade expectations. USDA made no changes to Brazil corn or Argentine corn or soybean production estimates.
The forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher pork and broiler forecasts for the fourth quarter are partly offset by lower turkey. Beef production is unchanged with lower expected cattle slaughter offset by higher dressed weights. Pork production is raised on higher slaughter. Broiler production is raised on current slaughter and hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered on recent slaughter data. Egg production is unchanged from last month.
View the report here: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde
***AUDIO*** Market analysis and WASDE reaction with Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX: