Tighter Margins Ahead in 2024

Despite a drop in key operating costs, Rabobank says contracted margins in 2023 will continue into the new year.

Soybean farmers are likely to achieve good margins in the 2024 season, but corn farmers will feel their margins pressured by ample supply. Wheat margins are unlikely to see better margins despite declining costs. Trends are indicating that the markets are at a pivotal point.

Rabobank says uncertainty rises from factors like record Brazilian crops, more “adequate” crops in the U.S. and Europe, and expectations of another record crop in Brazil in 2024. Global domestic demand for key crops declined, which points to building stocks and lower prices. Weather challenges and geopolitical instability coupled with economic uncertainty prompt consideration of a risk premium in the market. Rabobank says corn exhibits the least upside potential, with wheat presenting the highest upside potential. Soybeans likely fall somewhere in between. Volatility is likely in 2024.