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Analysis Shows Tariff-Induced Trade War Would Hurt U.S. Farmers

A new economic study paints a troubling picture of the potential results a renewed U.S.-China trade war could have on hundreds of thousands of farmers and rural communities, showing American-imposed tariffs would come at a steep cost to U.S. producers while benefiting Brazil and Argentina.

The study, commissioned by the American Soybean Association and the National Corn Growers Association and conducted by the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services, shows a new trade war would result in an immediate drop in corn and soy exports to the tune of hundreds of millions of tons. As a result, Brazil and Argentina would claim the lost market share, which would be extremely difficult for American growers to reclaim in the future.

“The study highlights the dangers that come with broad tariffs on imports,” said NCGA Lead Economist Krista Swanson. “While launching widespread tariffs may seem like an effective tool, they can boomerang and cause unintended consequences. Our first goal should be to avoid unnecessary harm.”

ASA joined NCGA in cautioning against a trade war.

ASA Chief Economist Scott Gerlt said, “The U.S. agriculture sector is going through a significant economic downturn. This work shows that a trade war would easily compound the adverse conditions that are placing financial stress on farmers. Even when a trade war officially ends, the loss of market share can be permanent.”

The third-party study comes as U.S. lawmakers and officials from both political parties are increasingly looking at tariff-forward approaches as they work to address troubling Chinese trade practices.

Read more online here: https://ncga.com/stay-informed/media/in-the-news/article/2024/10/analysis-shows-tariff-induced-trade-war-would-hurt-u-s-farmers

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