President-elect Trump’s promised ‘day-one’ tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China, aimed at curbing illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl into the United States, have prompted quick responses from all three countries.
The proposed tariffs, which would affect the United States’ three largest trading partners, led Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to reach out to Trump directly. Trudeau expressed concerns about border security and trade, signaling a willingness to engage in dialogue and resolve the issue before the tariffs take effect.
Canada’s trade with the U.S. is heavily centered around oil, which remains the country’s top export to its southern neighbor. While Canadian officials have yet to issue a formal statement, the swift diplomatic contact between Trudeau and Trump suggests an effort to deescalate tensions ahead of the incoming tariffs.
In contrast to Canada’s more conciliatory tone, Mexico’s newly elected President, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, made her position clear during a press conference on Tuesday morning. Sheinbaum Pardo declared that Mexico would engage in a “tariff-for-tariff” response, matching the United States’ actions until shared economic interests were at risk.
“We will not be intimidated,” Sheinbaum Pardo stated. “Neither threats nor tariffs will solve the issue of migration or drug consumption in the United States. Cooperation and shared understanding are required to face these important challenges.”
However, President-elect Trump posted on Truth Social Wednesday evening, suggesting diplomacy with the southern neighbor.
“Just had a wonderful conversation with the new President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo,” he wrote. “She has agreed to stop migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border. We also talked about what can be done to stop the massive drug inflow into the United States, and also, U.S. consumption of these drugs. It was a very productive conversation!”
Meanwhile, China, another key trading partner for the U.S., joined the chorus of criticism on Tuesday. The Chinese government condemned Trump’s proposed tariffs, highlighting the potential harm to both the U.S. and global economies.
Canada and Mexico, both large trade partners of the U.S. under the USMCA (U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement), could face increased costs for goods like Canadian oil and Mexican-made vehicles. Some products may be exempt from tariffs, but the broader economic implications remain unclear.
Breaking Down Two Key Issues: Illegal Immigration and Drugs
According to metrics released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, a vast majority of Border Patrol arrests of people entering the country through ports of entry happen at the southern border.
A little less than a year ago, in December 2023, Border Patrol made about a quarter of a million arrests along the southern border — an all-time high. Cross-border trade was disrupted as border agents were reassigned to help process migrants, and train traffic was temporarily shut down.
Trump’s first term also struggled to manage illegal border crossings. Arrests topped 850,000 in 2019, nearly triple the amount from two years earlier, though still far below the tally of more than 2 million arrests in two different years under Biden.
On the northern border, the numbers are much smaller. Border Patrol made 23,721 arrests between October 2023 and September 2024, compared with 10,021 in the previous 12 months.
Some reporting numbers show a drop in the amount of people encountered at the southern border and remained low, citing stricter enforcement on the Mexican side and asylum restrictions announced earlier this year by the Biden administration.
Much of America’s fentanyl is smuggled from Mexico, and it has been the main source since 2018. In that year, under pressure from the U.S., China added fentanyl and its analogs to its list of controlled substances, making it harder to produce and export fentanyl legally. However, analysts believe Chinese producers shifted to producing precursor chemicals (the raw ingredients for fentanyl) and then shipped these chemicals to labs in other countries, especially Mexico.
By the early 2000s, illicit fentanyl, mostly produced in illegal labs in China and Mexico, began showing up in the U.S. drug supply. However, it wasn’t until around 2013 that fentanyl-related overdose deaths started to spike significantly.
Border seizures of fentanyl have surged under Biden, which may partly reflect improved detection. About 27,000 pounds (12,247 kilograms) of fentanyl was seized by U.S. authorities in the 2023 government budget year, compared with 2,545 pounds (1,154 kilograms) in 2019, when Trump was president.
Cooperation between the Mexican and U.S. governments on fighting drug smuggling undoubtedly suffered under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who left office at the end of September.
Before López Obrador took office in December 2018, the U.S. worked closely with Mexico’s military to take down drug cartels. But López Obrador, a nationalist and folksy populist, railed against the violence triggered by the drug war waged by his predecessors and the Americans. He proposed addressing the root societal causes of violence, such as poverty and lack of opportunity for young people, in what he called “hugs, not bullets.”
For years, López Obrador denied that Mexico made fentanyl, despite evidence to the contrary, including statements from his own security officials. He blamed U.S. society, claiming that families push children out of their homes too early, contributing to addiction.
It’s only two months into the term of President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, but there are signs she is more willing to let the military go after the cartels than her predecessor. This shift is underscored by her conversations with President-elect Trump late Wednesday.