The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently had to significantly boost its 2024-2025 export outlooks thanks to better-than-expected export sales for corn and soybeans. Last Tuesday’s WASDE shows record-low stocks to use for U.S. soybean oil. There was also a surprising number in corn ending stocks, which turned out to be smaller than the previous marketing year.
Soybean oil sold for exporting in 2024-2025 totaled 416,356 metric tons as of November 28, the highest level in eight years for that date. Last week’s forecast surged 83 percent to 499,000 tons, or 1.1 billion pounds. That’s a three-year high point but still under the average for the last decade.
Earlier this year, USDA predicted 2024-2025 U.S. corn ending stocks would surge 17 percent higher to 2.53 billion bushels. The WASDE had corn ending stocks for 2024-2025 at 1.738 billion bushels, down one percent from 2023-2024. Corn exports will jump six percent to 2.475 billion bushels.
The USDA monthly wheat outlook shows an expected jump in export forecasts because of weaker exports from Russia and the European Union. Wheat shipments will total 850 million bushels in the 2024-2025 marketing year that ends on May 31, 2025. That’s up from the prior outlook of 825 million bushels and well ahead of last year’s 707 million bushels. USDA says from June through October, wheat exports were reported at 366 million bushels, up 35 percent from the same time last year.
The outlook report says the average farm price for wheat is $5.60 a bushel and is based on prices reported to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and expectations for prices from now through the end of May. “Futures prices have declined slightly amid improvements in winter wheat conditions, but global ending stocks are still projected at a nine-year low,” the government says.