(WASHINGTON D.C.) — Cuts to 2024 corn and soybeans yields, lower than expected corn and soybean ending stocks and a rise in winter wheat acres were all found in the latest data release from USDA on Friday.
The USDA released the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports at 11am CST. USDA cut 2024 corn yield down to 179.3 bushels per acre (bpa), down about 3.8 bushels, while soybean yield was dropped to 50.7 bpa, down about a bushel from previous estimates.
U.S. 2024-25 corn and soybean ending stocks fell to 1.540 billion and 380 million respectively while wheat stocks rose to 798 million. The corn and soybean ending stocks numbers were well below pre-report estimates and USDA December numbers while the wheat stocks number was up slightly from last month.
When it came to quarterly grain stocks numbers, corn came in at 12.074 billion bushels as of December 1st, 2024 while soybeans were 3.1 billion bushels and wheat was at 1.570 billion bushels. Those numbers were below pre-report estimates for corn and soybeans while slightly higher than expected for wheat.
On the global side, USDA made no changes to South American production estimates for Brazil and Argentina’s crops. They left Brazil corn 127 million metric tons (MMT) and soybeans at 169 mmt. For Argentina, they left corn production at 51 mmt and soybean production at 52 mmt on the latest report.
All winter wheat acres rose to 34.115 million on the annual Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report from USDA. Hard red wheat acres came in at 24 million, soft red wheat acres at 6.44 million and winter wheat acres at 3.64 million.
The season-average corn price received by producers was raised 15 cents to $4.25 per bushel. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is increased $10 to $310 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound. The season-average farm price for wheat is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $5.55 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast down 4.8 million tons to 1.494 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, reduced trade, and higher ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ghana, and Russia.
China corn production is raised to a record 294.9 million tons WASDE-656-2 based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Corn production is higher for Russia based on the latest information from Rosstat.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024/25 include lower corn exports for the United States and Brazil. Corn imports are raised for Turkey but lowered for China, South Korea, and Japan. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher mostly reflecting an increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 293.3 million tons, are down 3.1 million.
Foreign 2024/25 oilseed production is lowered 0.3 million tons to 551.9 million, mainly on lower rapeseed production for India, Russia, and Uruguay, and lower soybean production for Russia and China. Partly offsetting is higher sunflower seed production for Russia and higher cottonseed production for China and Australia.
Global soybean exports are unchanged while global soybean crush is raised 1.9 million tons to 349.3 million. Crush is higher for Brazil on strong first-quarter soybean meal exports. The Iraq soybean balance sheet was also added to the database as soybean imports have risen over the past few years, which contributed to higher month-overmonth global crush.
Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 128.4 million tons, down 3.5 million, mainly on lower stocks for the United States and Brazil.
View the WASDE Report here: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/3t945q76s?locale=en
View Quarterly Grain Stocks here: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/xg94hp534
View Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings here: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/z890rt24s