(WASHINGTON D.C.) — The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report for March was released on Tuesday morning, with an update to the balance sheets as we head towards spring planting. USDA did provide a caveat to this month’s report regarding tariffs. They said at the top of the WASDE report that “the WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.”
They added that “U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2 for all products covered under USMCA, which include most agricultural products in the WASDE. Reciprocal tariffs are also scheduled to begin on April 2. However, until these are in effect, WASDE does not incorporate them into commodity forecasts. Despite U.S. tariffs being suspended, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain in place. These are accounted for in WASDE estimates and are assumed to continue. U.S. tariffs on China and China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. are assumed to remain in place.”
As for the results to this month’s survey, this month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. U.S. 2024/25 soybean supply and use projections are unchanged this month. The soybean oil balance sheet includes higher exports and lower soybean oil used for biofuel. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively.
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 140 million on a continued robust pace. By-class increases were made to Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum. Wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 835 million, based on Census exports through January and expectations for sales and shipments for the remainder of the marketing year. By-class reductions were made to HRS, Soft Red Winter, and Durum. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $5.50 on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
World corn and soybean stocks did decline slightly while USDA made no changes to Brazil or Argentina’s crop production.
View the WASDE here: https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report
Below is market analysis of the WASDE and more with Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX.
