Sunday, February 9, 2025
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President Trump Imposes Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

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**EDITORS NOTE: Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been paused for 30 days while the tariffs on China have taken effect.

(WASHINGTON D.C.) — On Saturday, President Donald Trump signed 25% tariffs on items from Mexico and Canada, 10% tariffs on Canadian energy and 10% tariffs on China. The long rumored tariffs were signed by Trump as an executive order declaring an economic emergency and in a response to illegal immigration and fentanyl coming into America according to President Trump.

Both Canada and Mexico are issuing retaliatory tariffs against the United States. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada will also implement 25-percent tariffs against the U.S., including “30-billion-dollars worth of goods” that will cross the border starting on Tuesday.

Trudeau addressed Americans directly when he said “we have fought and died alongside you during your darkest hours,” making specific references to events such as the Iran hostage crisis and January’s California wildfires. He said the “better path (for the U.S.) is to partner with Canada, not to punish us.” Trudeau said Trump’s tariffs, which took effect on Saturday, “split us apart instead of bringing us together.” Trudeau added that he isn’t “looking to escalate,” but made it clear “we will stand up for Canada, for Canadians, for Canadian jobs.” He blamed Trump for “real consequences” that Canadians and Americans will both suffer.

Meanwhile, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said she felt forced to implement the tariffs to defend her country’s interests, but that she’s seeking collaboration, not confrontation, with America.

On Sunday, China says they intend to file a lawsuit against the U.S. in response to President Trump’s announcement of a ten-percent levy on Chinese imports. China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Sunday the lawsuit would be filed at the World Trade Organization. The statement called the tariff a “serious violation” and said China will “take corresponding countermeasures to firmly safeguard its own rights and interests.”

While Canada and Mexico retaliated with tariffs of their own, China’s Commerce Ministry did not make any references to imposing tariffs on the U.S.

Reaction has been coming in far and wide to the tariff announcement. House Committee on Agriculture Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (PA-15) issued the following statement: saying that President Trump’s tariff policy has been an effective tool in leveling the global playing field and ensuring fair trade for American producers. Look no further than Colombia’s about face on accepting repatriated criminal migrants at the mere threat of tariffs. After four years of the Biden-Harris Administration’s failure to expand foreign markets, which led to an inflated agricultural trade deficit of $45.5 billion, America’s producers deserve an Administration that will fight for them. I look forward to working alongside of President Trump to support our hardworking producers and to make agriculture great again.”

House Agriculture Committee Ranking Member Angie Craig criticized President Trump for the tariffs in a statement. She said that  “No one wins in a trade war. The last time President Trump started a trade war, costs went up for America’s family farmers and consumers. The same will happen today. The cost of imported goods like oil, lumber, avocados, tomatoes, bell peppers, lettuce, broccoli, cucumbers, onions and mushrooms and other fresh food are likely to go up for Americans. At a time when farmers are struggling with high input costs and the American people continue to struggle with the cost of groceries, these tariffs will make it more expensive for farmers to grow food and for consumers to buy it. Additionally, when American farmers face the inevitable retaliatory tariffs from our trading partners, their profits take a hit. This action is especially questionable since President Trump’s previous administration negotiated our last trade agreement – USMCA – with Canada and Mexico.”

National Farmers Union (NFU) President Rob Larew issued a statement in response, saying in part that “The trade actions announced by the president will almost certainly trigger significant retaliation against U.S. agricultural products. This comes at a time of deep uncertainty for farmers—commodity prices are volatile, input costs remain high, and we still lack an updated farm bill.”

Larew added that “One thing is clear: American family farmers and ranchers are always the first to bear the brunt of unilateral trade actions. While we support efforts to hold trading partners accountable and strengthen American manufacturing, our members have already suffered heavy losses from past trade disputes, especially with China, and have lost valuable market access. Before taking any action that might further stress farm and rural economies, we urge the president to put a plan in place to protect and support family farmers and ranchers.”

It is unknown what the immediate effects will be on food and ag products. Fertilizer has been one area of concern with tariffs on Canada. The Fertilizer Institute President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch released a statement on Sunday saying in part that “The Fertilizer Institute stands ready to collaborate with the Trump Administration to spur growth in the fertilizer industry, support U.S. agriculture, and ensure affordable food prices for everyday Americans. Ensuring stable, affordable access to fertilizers is critical to maintaining a globally competitive U.S. agricultural sector, strengthening rural economies, and keeping food prices affordable for hard working American families.”

Rosenbusch added that “However, given their effects on the broader farm economy, TFI urges the Trump Administration to exempt Canadian potash and other fertilizers from the tariff order, especially as we approach the critical time of spring planting where nutrient delivery and application are essential for the harvests that fill American’s dinner tables with abundant and affordable food.”

Other major industries involved in trade are criticizing Trump’s newly enacted tariffs. The United Steelworkers union asked the President to rethink the tariffs saying “Lashing out at key allies like Canada is not the way forward.” The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said that tariffs “will only raise prices for American families and upend supply chains.”

A group representing spirit makers voiced concerns that the tariffs on imported spirits “will significantly harm all three countries.” Before the tariffs were enacted, the National Homebuilders Association said it was concerned the tariffs would further aggravate “a severe housing shorting” nationwide.

United States Cattle Inventory Down 1%

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WASHINGTON, Jan. 31, 2025 – There were 86.7 million head of cattle and calves on U.S. farms as of Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Cattle report published today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Other key findings in the report were:

  • Of the 86.7 million head inventory, all cows and heifers that have calved totaled 37.2 million.
  • There are 27.9 million beef cows in the United States as of Jan. 1, 2025, down 1% from last year.
  • The number of milk cows in the United States increased slightly to 9.35 million.
  • U.S. calf crop was estimated at 33.5 million head, down slightly from previous year.
  • All cattle on feed were at 14.3 million head, down 1% from 2024.

To obtain an accurate measurement of the current state of the U.S. cattle industry, NASS surveyed approximately 36,100 operators across the nation during the first half of January. Surveyed producers were asked to report their cattle inventories as of Jan. 1, 2025, and calf crop for the entire year of 2024 by internet, mail, telephone, or in-person interview.

The Cattle report and all other NASS reports are available online at nass.usda.gov/Publications.

Ranchers Seek Approval of $83.5 Million Settlement with JBS in Cattle Antitrust Case

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WASHINGTON – Today, National Farmers Union, alongside ranch group R-CALF USA and four fed cattle producers, who filed a class-action antitrust lawsuit in April 2019 against JBS, Tyson, Cargill, and National Beef, filed a motion with the Federal District Court for the District of Minnesota for preliminary approval of a proposed $83.5 million class action settlement with the JBS defendants.

Through their counsel Scott+Scott Attorneys at Law LLP, Cafferty Clobes Meriwether & Sprengel LLP, and Robins Kaplan LLP, NFU and the other cattle plaintiffs agreed to the proposed settlement, which includes the $83.5 million cash payment and certain non-monetary consideration, including the provision of certain documents, and certain assistance in relation to any subsequent trial against the remaining three Defendants, Tyson, Cargill, and National Beef. The settlement is not an admission of liability by JBS, who continues to deny any wrongdoing.

If the court grants preliminary approval of the proposed settlement, it will order that notice be sent to the settlement classes informing them of the proposed settlement’s details, including how class members can make a claim for their share of the settlement.

The settlement classes covered by the proposed settlement include, subject to certain exclusions and conditions, all persons or entities: a) within the U.S. that directly sold fed cattle for slaughter to Tyson, JBS, Cargill and/or National Beef from June 1, 2015 to February 29, 2020 other than pursuant to a cost-plus agreement and/or a profit sharing agreement; b) who held a long position in live cattle futures traded on the CME prior to June 1, 2015 and subsequently liquidated the long position through an offsetting market transaction at any point prior to November 1, 2016.

More details regarding the settlement, including who may be covered by its terms, will be available shortly on a settlement website: www.cattleantitrustsettlement.com

“We are pleased to have reached a significant milestone in the case with the JBS settlement. We look forward to prosecuting our claims against the remaining Defendants, Tyson, Cargill and National Beef,” said NFU President Rob Larew. “Outside of the litigation, NFU’s work to restore pricing transparency and competitiveness for family farmers and ranchers continues.”

“We’re pleased to have reached this settlement with JBS and we look forward to prosecuting our claims against the remaining Defendants, Tyson, Cargill and National Beef,” said R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard.

Cattle and Bison Imports from Mexico Resume Under New Protocol

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WASHINGTON, D.C. – The United States Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is announcing the resumption of cattle and bison imports from Mexico. Imports are scheduled to resume within the next several days.

To protect U.S. livestock and other animals, APHIS halted shipments of Mexican cattle and bison in November 2024 after a positive detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. After extensive discussions between representatives from the countries, APHIS and Mexico agreed to and implemented a comprehensive pre-clearance inspection and treatment protocol to ensure safe movement and mitigate the threat of NWS.

APHIS’ top priority is to protect American livestock from foreign pests. As part of the protocol signed between the countries, Mexico identified and prepared pre-export inspection pens in San Jeronimo, Chihuahua, and Agua Prieta, Sonora, which APHIS has now visited, inspected, and approved. Cattle and bison will be inspected and treated for screwworm by trained and authorized veterinarians prior to entering the pre-export inspection pens, where they will again undergo inspection by Mexican officials before proceeding to final APHIS inspection then crossing at the Santa Teresa and Douglas Ports of Entry, respectively. Cattle and bison approved for importation will also be dipped in a solution to ensure they are otherwise insect- and tick -free. The United States and Mexico are working closely to approve additional pre-export inspection pens and reopen trade through other ports of entry.

To support our efforts to keep NWS out of the United States, APHIS will continue working with partners in Mexico and Central America to eradicate NWS from the affected areas and to reestablish the biological barrier in Panama, which we have worked to maintain since 2006.

In the last two years, screwworm has spread north of the barrier throughout Panama and into Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize and now Mexico. This increase is due to multiple factors including new areas of farming in previous barrier regions for fly control and increased cattle movements into the region. APHIS is releasing sterile flies through aerial and ground release at strategic locations, focusing on Southern Mexico and other areas throughout Central America.  A complete list of regions APHIS recognizes as affected by screwworm as well as more detailed information on trade restrictions can be found on the USDA APHIS Animal Health Status of Regions website.

Friday, January 31st, 2025 Podcast

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The threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico is one of many things bring uncertainty to the markets to close out the month of January. We saw corn, wheat, soybeans and meal lower on Friday while bean oil and cattle futures traded higher. DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing joins us to close out the week and share his perspective on the uncertainty and potential volatility ahead in the commodity and livestock markets. Find more online as well by visiting https://www.boltmarketingllc.com.

Slow Soybean Harvest Pace, Potential Quality Issues and More in Brazil

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(NASHVILLE, TN) — As early soybean harvest gets underway in Brazil, there has been plenty of chatter amongst traders and on social media about a slow pace of harvest and potential quality concerns due to continued rains in central and northern areas.

Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor says that many areas of the country are behind on soy harvest and that early yields, although good, have not been as good as some people thought they would be. “Brazil in general, as of last Friday, soybeans were 3.9% harvested compared to 10.8% last year,” says Dr. Cordonnier.And Mato Grosso, the big state, is quite behind. They’re 4.3% harvested compared to 21.5% last year. Now, the only state that’s ahead of average is Paraná, and they’re 11.2% harvested compared to 18 last year. It’s been very wet in central Brazil for about the last month and a half. A lot of overcast skies, lack of sunshine.”

Dr. Cordonnier added that “Now, the early yields, they’re good, don’t get me wrong, but they’re not quite up to what people thought they would be. The crop just looked fantastic, tall, green, lush, but it didn’t quite yield what they thought, and everybody’s attributing that to a lack of sunshine.”

He says that farmers are afraid of a return of heavy rains for a prolonged period time as that would be “quite bad news.” Dr. Cordonnier says that there have not been many quality concerns as of yet, but more heavy rains could cause issues with quality and logistics.

“What everybody’s concerned about is, as the beans start to mature, then if you get a long period of weather, a week long of constant rain, there could be quality issues,” according to Dr. Cordonnier. “Has not happened yet, but it certainly is a possibility, and there’s going to be logistical issues. I can just see it coming. Farmers want to get their beans as quick as they can. They’re not going to wait for 13%, 14% moisture out there in the field for fear of a prolonged period of rain coming back in.”

He adds that a lack of on-farm storage in Brazil could create some problems. “So they’re going to get those beans at 18%, 20% moisture, and they need to be dried, and here’s the problem. Only 15% of the storage in Brazil is on-farm. So 85% of the beans have to go to a grain elevator or the co-op, and those grain elevators don’t have the drying capacity to dry every load of soybeans coming in. Now, if you’re a farmer and you don’t have on-farm storage, your combine dumps into a truck. The truck heads to the grain elevator. Now, they don’t have enough drying capacity.”

Dr. Cordonnier continues saying “He may be waiting in line two or three days to unload, and you as the farmer, you can’t keep harvesting until the truck returns or a truck comes back. So there’s going to be some issues, I think, logistically getting all these beans dried because they’re going to be harvested at a high moisture. I can just see it coming.”

Yields in southern Brazil, like the state of Paraná, have been more on the disappointing side due to dry weather in that state according to Dr. Cordonnier. He also adds that while the situation in Argentina is not catastrophic due to dry weather, he expects yields for that country to be disappointing. Dr. Cordonnier says that corn and soybean ratings in Argentina were 30% and 22% good to excellent as of last week.

Also, in terms of phytosanitary concerns with soybean shipments from Brazil to China, Dr. Cordonnier says that this is a minor deal. “That thing with China, it was from individual locations in five different companies. So it wasn’t that five companies were prohibited. It was just like five individual grain elevators were prohibited,” says Dr. Cordonnier. “They never actually said what the problem was, and some people said it was treated soybeans that got put into the regular hold of the ship, or maybe some insects. This is a minor deal. I don’t see this having much long-term problems at all. It’ll be resolved quite easily and quite quickly.”

Reuters reports that the suspension of soybean imports from those five locations will last two months, according to a top Brazilian agriculture official.

You can hear the full conversation with Dr. Michael Cordonnier on this past Tuesday’s episode of Agriculture of America (AOA) via the podcast link below. The interview starts at the 34 minute mark of the podcast.

Rural Mainstreet Economy Contracts Again

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The January 2025 Rural Mainstreet Index fell below growth neutral for the 16th time in the past 17 months. For the eighth time in the past nine months, farmland prices took a tumble. On average, bank CEOs who responded to the monthly survey expect annual cash rents of $278 per acre of non-irrigated, non-pasture farmland. Farm equipment sales also dropped, making it 18 months in a row.

Also on the survey, bankers expect one in five grain farmers to experience a negative cash flow for 2025. Approximately one-third of bank CEOs recommend that the Federal Reserve leave short-term interest rates unchanged in 2025.

Data from the International Trade Association says regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first 11 months of 2024 rose by $673.4 million to $11.6 billion from the same period in 2023 for a 6.2 percent gain. Mexico was the top destination for 2024 ag exports.

U.S. Agriculture Directly in the Bullseye

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Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said she doesn’t believe the U.S. will impose tariffs on Saturday, February 1, as President Donald Trump had pledged. Reuters says her administration has already put a response plan in place if it becomes needed.

The report says retaliatory tariffs would initially exempt the auto industry, sparing what has become Mexico’s most important manufacturing sector and one closely integrated with the U.S. The retaliatory tariffs will likely hit pork products, cheese, apples, grapes, potatoes, cranberries, and Bourbon whiskey, as well as manufactured steel and aluminum. “Mexico has chosen these products because they have a big impact on regions that overwhelmingly voted for President Trump,” Sheinbaum said.

Bloomberg says Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick to lead the Commerce Department, says Mexico and Canada can avoid the tariffs if they tighten border security. “If we’re your biggest trading partner, show us some respect and shut your border,” Trump had said.

President Trump has said again this week that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are coming Saturday, but he hasn’t decided if oil imports will be included. Speaking at the White House Thursday, Trump said it would depend on the price of oil. The President said we don’t need the products Mexico and Canada have and we have all the oil needed.

Canada supplied half of oil imports to the U.S. in 2023, while Mexico made up eleven percent.

Doug Burgum Confirmed as Interior Secretary

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(Washington, DC) — Doug Burgum is confirmed as the next Department of the Interior secretary. The U.S. Senate voted 79-18 Thursday to confirm the former North Dakota governor to the post in the Trump Administration.

Burgum will now be tasked with overseeing President Trump’s agenda of achieving American “energy dominance” and the “drill baby, drill” mantra that has been mentioned by Trump on numerous occasions. Burgum will also chair the new National Energy Council and have a seat on the National Security Council, a first for the interior secretary.

“Doug Burgum is tailor-made for the Secretary of the Interior,” said U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND), who voted in favor or Burgum’s nomination. “North Dakota embodies Teddy Roosevelt’s multiple use doctrine for public lands, balancing energy development, ranching, conservation, and recreation on some of the most beautiful, productive landscapes in the nation. Doug’s leadership in North Dakota and coordination with our tribes are models for our nation. He has a lot of work to do righting the ship, but his consensus-driven leadership style is up to the task.”

Ag groups issued their congratulations to Burgum, including the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) and Public Lands Council (PLC). “NCBA and PLC congratulate Doug Burgum on his confirmation as Secretary of the Interior. Secretary Burgum has a proven record of supporting rural communities and promoting a balanced approach to energy development and conservation. His leadership will be critical for ensuring that ranchers and public lands grazing permittees are recognized as a valuable partner in stewarding Western landscapes and for removing regulatory burdens that have plagued management of grazing allotments for decades,” said Kaitlynn Glover, executive director of PLC and NCBA Natural Resources. “We look forward to working with Secretary Burgum to protect the livelihoods of ranchers who rely on public lands, safeguard the health of these ecosystems, and promote policies that benefit rural communities and the entire nation.”

The American Sugar Alliance issued the following statement on Doug Burgum’s confirmation as Secretary of the Interior, saying that The American Sugar Alliance congratulates Doug Burgum on his confirmation as Secretary of the Interior. His leadership will be essential to ensuring that America’s farmers have the resources they need to succeed. As the former governor of North Dakota, home to the Red River Valley, the largest sugarbeet-production region in America, we know Secretary Burgum understands how important domestic sugar production is to ensure a reliable supply of a critical ingredient and to strengthen our national food security. We look forward to working with him to address the challenges facing rural communities and advancing policies that put America’s farmers first.”

Some groups, however, have not been fully on board with Burgum’s nomination. Danielle Murray, founder of the Public Lands Center, released the following statement after Burgum’s confirmation saying that “Secretary Burgum must run the Interior Department to benefit all Americans – not just the wealthiest. The bare minimum to meet that standard should be to keep public lands in public hands, as Congress intended when it created the Bureau of Land Management in 1976. Americans are trusting Secretary Burgum to reject any attempt to wrest control of our outdoor heritage, whether it’s giving into Utah’s land disposal quest or by putting extractive industries first in the management of public lands. These lands belong to all of us and future generations.

Burgum is in line to become the second former North Dakota governor to serve as a U.S. Cabinet secretary. Governor Ed Schafer was Agriculture Secretary under President George W. Bush from 2008 to 2009.

Chicken Wings and the Super Bowl

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Kansas City is known for its barbecue, and Philadelphia for its cheesesteaks. When it comes to Super Bowl menus, nothing is hotter than wings.

The National Chicken Council released its annual Chicken Wing Report, projecting Americans will consume 1.47 billion chicken wings while watching the Chiefs and Eagles battle for the Lombardi Trophy. “Matthew McConaughey was right: football is for food,” says NCC Spokesman Tom Super. “Sure, there will be pizza, guacamole, chips, and dips, but when it comes to the Super Bowl, chicken wings will rule the roost.”

To put it in context, if every player in the NFL ate 50 wings a day (and was immortal), it would take them collectively 720 years to eat 1.47 billion. 1.47 billion wings laid end to end would stretch from Arrowhead Stadium in KC to Lincoln Financial Field in Philly about 63 times. “We love our football and wings,” Super said.