(WASHINGTON D.C.) — Judging by the way commodity prices have been trending the last several months, it is no secret that many U.S. farmers might be favoring more corn acres as spring planting season draws closer and closer in 2025.
At Thursday’s USDA Ag Outlook Forum, they forecasted a record corn crop in the year ahead at 15.58 billion bushels. USDA projected that figure with an average yield estimate of 181 bushels per acre (bpa) and 94 million acres of corn planted nationwide. Conversely on the soybean side, they projected a slightly higher crop than last year at 4.37 billion bushels with a lower acreage at 84 million and a average yield of 52.5 bpa.
Those acreage numbers were up 3.4 million for corn and down 3.1 million on soybeans, if the projections hold true. And the rumor mill from seed dealers, growers and analysts, along with looking at the corn/soybean ratio in the markets, would seem to suggest that for the time being these numbers are very possible. Many growers and analysts told Reuters that they’re hoping to squeeze out more profits and shield themselves from possible tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Frayne Olson, an ag economist at North Dakota State University, says when you look at the profitability of each crop, corn is winning in the acreage battle. Iowa State University economist Chad Hart says it’s possible that some farmers may be able to earn “a nickel or two” on every corn bushel. For soybeans and other crops, prices have fallen below what it costs to produce them. “Given what the cost structures look like right now, corn has the best chance to make a little profit in 2025,” according to Hart.
Eric Kroupa, a farmer in central South Dakota who raises corn, soybeans, wheat and cattle, said in that same Reuters article that “This year, it’s all about what crop is going to lose the least amount of money.”
At USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum on Thursday, it highlighted many of these challenges for growers in 2025. Stubbornly high input costs, low commodity prices and potential export demand headwinds due to increased competition, tariffs and more. USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer highlighted the cost price squeeze on inputs saying in part that “that is not to characterize receipts across commodities as being in a good position. Margins for producers are tight, and receipts from the market are tight. And I think we also need to distinguish between what’s going on, on the crop side, and the livestock side and where income to the farm sector is coming from.”
Also, when it comes to export headwinds, Meyer highlighted the challenges from Brazil and flat demand from China when it comes to soybeans in particular. “Brazil is providing us with some increased competition in the world soybean market,” said Meyer. “So, you can see here, world trade expanding, Brazilian production increasing over time, and our share of global trade declining.”
At the end of the day, however, it will all come back to spring weather and whether or not we actually can hit the projected corn acreage and record crop. Matt Bennett with AgMarket.net spoke at the Ag Outlook Forum on Thursday and said he thinks we can get to that 94 million acreage number.
“If you look at corn acres just from two years ago, we were 94.6. I have a hard time believing we’ll go below that, quite frankly. The economics certainly suggest that corn acres should increase dramatically this year. Soy to corn ratio is as low as it’s been in 15 years<‘ says Bennett. “And so, you know, with that being the case, you’ve got to expect a lot of growers are going to shy away from soybeans, whereas as far as corn’s concerned, I think especially the farther north you move, there’s gonna be a lot of corn on corn acres. So I think 94.6 for me is a basement. I think you go up from there.”
USDA also says the average price forecast for 2025-2026 is down 15 cents for corn to $4.20 a bushel while soybeans are down ten cents to an even $10 a bushel. There were minimal changes elsewhere in acreage as wheat planted acreage was pegged at 47 million acres, up 900,000 from last year. Wheat had a projected average yield of 50.1 bpa and total production projected at 1.926 billion bushels.
