Tuesday, January 14, 2025
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Monday, January 13th, 2025 Podcast

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Grain markets continued to rally on Monday as it appeared more spillover support from the USDA reports from Friday was at play. Soybeans in particular found some impressive strength and have rallied over 40 cents in the last two sessions. Is this a gift that won’t last in for producers? Should you be rewarding this rally? John Heinberg from Total Farm Marketing stops by to share price perspective and thoughts on the grain market moves post report and a look at the livestock sector as well. Find more online by visiting their website at https://www.totalfarmmarketing.com.

Weather issues in the U.S. and South America are top of mind as we start a new week. We have the devastating wildfires in California, more arctic cold potential in the U.S. along with continuing drought concerns into spring and more developing concern in Argentina and southern Brazil. Eric Snodgrass with Conduit joins us for our Weekly Weather Update. Find more online by visiting https://www.ag-wx.com.

Markets Rally on Friday’s USDA Production Estimates

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USDA released the combined World Agricultural Supply and Demond Estimates report along with its final Crop Production estimates for 2024 on Friday, and the market was quick to react. Corn futures soared over 15 cents to the highest levels since mid-June and soybean futures jumped to two-month highs.

USDA slashed corn yield estimates by 3.8 bushels per acre (bpa) to 179.3 bpa. That put analysts on their heels after offering an average trade guess of 182.7 bpa. That shoves total production estimates back below 15 billion bushels, with a new projection of 14.867 billion bushels. As with corn, USDA levied unexpected cuts to soybean yield and production estimates. The average yield eroded to 50.7 bpa, versus the average trade guess of 51.6 bpa. Production stumbled from 4.56 billion bushels in December down to 4.36 billion bushels.

USDA’s new outlook for wheat noted “slightly larger supplies and domestic use, unchanged exports, and marginally higher ending stocks.”

Listen to and watch analysis of Friday’s USDA reports on the Market Talk WASDE Roundtable for January with DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing and Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth of Van Ahn & Company. Also, more post report analysis with Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net can be found in the videos below.

Will $10 Billion in Economic Payments Offset Farm Income Losses?

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Researchers are still projecting negative returns for grain producers even after assistance from Washington, highlighting the extent of the downturn in the agricultural industry.

U.S. farmers and ranchers have access to $10 billion in economic aid as part of the farm bill extension passed at the end of 2024 to offset broad income declines. However, a new study from the University of Illinois says that the one-time payments likely won’t be enough to reverse deep profit losses for grain producers. While aid significantly reduces projected losses for 2024 many farmers will still see negative returns even after receiving the assistance, according to research estimates. Low commodity prices and high production costs have pressured farm margins and contributed to a widespread downturn in the agricultural economy.

With Congress still divided on a farm bill, many producers demanded that an extension include economic aid to improve balance sheets and position themselves to secure loans.

Trump Turning Attention to Panama Canal

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President-elect Donald Trump continues to have his eyes on Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal, as he reiterated in a press conference last Tuesday.

Asked if he would rule out the use of military force when looking at expansion, Trump said he couldn’t commit to that. Instead, he emphasized the importance of the Panama Canal, saying, “Look, the Panama Canal is vital to our country, it’s being operated by China, China. And we gave the Panama Canal to Panama, we didn’t give it to China.”

Responding to Trump, Panamanian officials said the canal’s sovereignty is non-negotiable. Overall, more than 70% of all cargo passing through the Panama Canal is coming from U.S. ports or heading to U.S. ports. At least $8.9 billion worth of agricultural products were shipped out of the Mississippi River ports through the canal in 2023. In a typical year, about 600 million bushels (mb) of U.S. soybeans and 450 mb of corn move through the Panama Canal.

Cal-Maine Reports Higher Profits from Lower Egg Supplies

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Cal-Maine Foods, the largest producer of eggs in the U.S., said strong consumer demand and supply constraints from the ongoing bird flu outbreak helped push up quarterly net sales by 82% over the previous year.

Sales of conventional and specialty eggs both increased in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, according to Cal-Maine. Higher prices and lower feed costs also raised profits, the company said. Egg prices continue to break records with the ongoing spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. Commercial producers have reported more deadly outbreaks that have forced them to cull flocks to contain the spread.

Bird flu outbreaks and facility fires in 2024 resulted in the loss of 39.9 million commercial table egg layers in 12 states, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Around 43% of losses occurred during the last two months of 2024, with one-third occurring in the peak demand period of December.

Industry Disappointment with Lack of 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credit Clarity

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(WASHINGTON D.C.) — On Friday, long awaited guidance on tax credits that are key to the future of the U.S. sustainable aviation fuel industry were released and met with disappointment due to a lack of clarity.

The Biden administration released guidance for the 45Z Clean Fuels Production tax credit and announced an update to the GREET model is expected soon. The guidance out on Friday from the IRS and U.S. Treasury also included a notice of intent to propose regulations on the on the section 45Z tax credit and a notice of providing the annual emissions rate table for 45Z.

Many industry and stakeholder groups, who have been waiting months for this guidance that is deemed key for the growth of SAF production in the U.S., shared disappointment with many aspects of Friday’s release from the Biden administration.

“This long-overdue guidance is far from complete—it still lacks the critical details that are needed to help ensure that American biofuel producers and their farm partners can lead the world in clean fuel production,” said Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor. “While we appreciate the work of Secretary Vilsack to champion our issues on behalf of rural America, today’s announcement falls short of providing the information that our industry and its farm partners need, including a model for an expanded number of eligible decarbonization technologies and guidance on climate smart agriculture (CSA) practices.

Growth Energy’s Skor added that “we look forward to working with the next Administration to fill in the gaps left by today’s announcement and to ensure this economic opportunity for the struggling farm economy is not left on the table. Demand for low carbon energy will continue to grow with or without us, and we need strong policy support in order to unleash the kind of investments that will position the U.S. for leadership in this market. Today’s guidance does not satisfy that need.” View Skor’s full statement here.

The Renewable Fuels Association noted that today’s release of a “notice of intent to propose regulations” begins a 90-day comment period that leaves major decisions on the future of the 45Z credit to the incoming Trump administration.

“While we are pleased to see Treasury has finally released its long overdue guidance on 45Z, today’s package falls short of expectations and remains incomplete,” said Geoff Cooper, President and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association. “The guidance is a potential step in the right direction, but much work remains to be done before clean fuel producers, farmers, and consumers can fully benefit from the 45Z program.”

Cooper noted that important information from the emissions rate table remains unavailable in today’s guidance, making it impossible for producers to know whether their fuel is eligible for the credit or not. While that information, along with a new 45Z GREET model, is expected to be released soon, today’s guidance leaves biofuel producers in limbo. Today’s guidance also fails to integrate climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices that can lower the carbon intensity of renewable fuels, and it does not allow producers to determine their own unique carbon intensity values (called a “provisional emissions rate”).

“Unfortunately, today’s guidance does not provide the certainty or flexibility that ethanol producers were looking for, and many questions remain unanswered,” Cooper said. “We do not believe this guidance alone will spur the investment, innovation, and job creation in the clean fuels sector that Congress and the administration intended. It simply isn’t bankable, investible, or otherwise actionable for the vast majority of biofuel producers.”

Clean Fuels Alliance America thanked U.S. Treasury and USDA officials for releasing long-awaited guidance describing the intended rules for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit and giving stakeholders an opportunity to evaluate its workability. Kurt Kovarik, Clean Fuels Vice President of Federal Affairs, stated, “We look forward to working with our members to evaluate the overdue guidance and forthcoming GREET model. We appreciate USDA, Treasury and the Department of Energy for issuing guidance. We’re hopeful that today’s notice provides the necessary certainty that producers can rely on ahead of the final rules. Clean fuel producers still need the carbon intensity scores from the GREET model to calculate their credit values; this missing information is key to enabling them to negotiate feedstock and fuel offtake agreements for the year and get back to business.”

Kovarik added, “Domestic production of biomass-based diesel has doubled since 2020, benefitting from multiyear certainty in federal tax policy. Biodiesel and renewable diesel combined now meet 9% of U.S. demand for distillate fuel for heavy-duty transportation needs. Clean Fuels and its member companies will carefully evaluate the guidance to ensure it provides needed certainty for all stakeholders and supports the industry’s continued growth.”

American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) CEO Brian Jennings issued the following statement in response to the 45Z news, saying in part that “ACE thanks the Biden Treasury Department for issuing preliminary guidance, acknowledging the need to incorporate climate-smart agriculture practices, and agreeing that emission values should be determined using the most recent GREET model which is updated annually. Despite this step in the right direction, the job is unfinished because the preliminary guidance doesn’t provide the clarity our industry has been awaiting. The guidance omits key details essential for biofuel producers to capitalize on 45Z, including how climate-smart agriculture practices will be incorporated. Our focus will be to engage the incoming Trump administration to make the final regulations for the 45Z credit beneficial for our members.”

Jennings added that “we are eager to collaborate with the Trump Treasury team to ensure 45Z is implemented effectively, with consideration of USDA’s technical guidelines on climate-smart agriculture practices that are under development. Since ag-based feedstocks represent about half of ethanol’s carbon footprint, it is critical to allow farmers and ethanol producers to realize the full value of sustainable farm practices through this tax credit. We once again applaud USDA Secretary Vilsack for his leadership on this topic. ACE will continue advocating for flexibility that recognizes the unique contributions of facility-specific process technologies and climate-smart farming practices to achieve meaningful carbon reductions.”

While today’s news included more information, leaders at the National Corn Growers Association said they still need better clarity about the specific environmental practices that will be required for accessing the credit.

“What a missed opportunity for growers,” said Illinois farmer and NCGA President Kenneth Hartman Jr. “We have spent the last year providing Treasury officials with fact-based information in hopes of helping them develop clear and realistic guidelines for qualifying for the tax credit. It’s frustrating that our feedback fell on deaf ears.” The burden to preserve this credit and to make it useful now shifts to the new administration, Hartman noted.

National Sorghum Producers (NSP) Chair Amy France, a sorghum farmer from Scott City, Kansas, said in a statement in part that “While the release of this short-term guidance marks a step forward, it falls short of delivering the clarity and comprehensive framework needed to fully realize the potential of the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit.

France added that “NSP appreciates the inclusion of sorghum as a recognized feedstock in this program, reflecting its value as The Resource Conserving Crop™. However, critical gaps remain, particularly regarding the specifics of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) model and USDA’s guidance on climate-smart agricultural practices. As we await their release in the coming weeks, it is clear that much remains to be seen before the full impact of this guidance can be understood. These details are essential to determine how helpful this program will ultimately be for producers at the farm level.”

In a joint statement on Friday, the American Soybean Association and National Oilseed Processors Association appreciate the U.S. Treasury Department’s  to propose regulation on the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z), which provides interim guidance for taxpayers to claim credits while developing a roadmap to spur additional investment in the domestic biofuel industry.

“ASA thanks the Biden administration and Treasury for listening to our concerns and developing guidance that supports U.S. farmers while strengthening our domestic biofuels industry,” said ASA President Caleb Ragland, a soy farmer from Kentucky. “The guidance released today is an investment in U.S. farmers, who stand ready to feed and fuel the world—while also fueling the U.S. economy. We look forward to working with Congress and the incoming Trump administration to build on this progress and develop final guidance that supports rural America.”

Also, American Carbon Alliance CEO Tom Buis issued a statement saying that “Today’s 45Z guidance falls short of expectations and is a missed opportunity to provide the clarity that rural America was hoping for. The 45Z program holds immense potential to drive new demand in the agriculture sector, expand market opportunities, strengthen rural economies, and provide much-needed stability for farm incomes. However, the lack of critical details released today undermines the certainty the agriculture industry needs to fully capitalize on this opportunity.”

Another aspect that has been a concern to the industry in recent months is the use and continued imports of used cooking oil (UCO) as a feedstock for biofuels and SAF. On Friday, the Treasury Department declared that UCO’s are ineligible for the 45Z credit until further guidance is provided.

“With respect to used cooking oil feedstocks, the Treasury Department and the IRS are concerned about the improper identification of a substance that is not UCO as UCO (for example, virgin palm oil mislabeled as UCO), which could have substantially greater emissions impacts than genuine UCO, and the uncertainty of market impacts caused by incentivizing UCO (for example, the degree to which increased UCO demand would be backfilled by virgin oils such as palm oil),” Treasury said in the proposal.

There were also no rules for the use of climate smart agriculture practices released with the latest guidance on Friday.

Deere Lays Off 75 Workers at Iowa Tractor Plant

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(OTTUMWA, IA) — John Deere has laid off 75 workers at a manufacturing facility in Iowa. The job cuts are some of the first in 2025 after the company reduced its workforce by the thousands last year in response to slowing demand.

Deere & Co. is laying off dozens of workers at a production plant in Ottumwa, Iowa, after struggling with tractor and equipment sales in recent months. Approximately 75 workers, or 13% of the plant’s workforce, will lose their jobs effective February 7, according to a recent Iowa WARN notice. The Ottumwa, Iowa plant just reopened after closing for the month of December due to sluggish demand for hay and forage equipment, the Des Moines Register reported.

To remain globally competitive, Deere must continue making workforce adjustments as needed to our manufacturing footprint, according to a Deere spokesperson.

Friday, January 10th, 2025 Podcast

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As the markets closed on Friday and the dust settled on USDA’s January data dump, corn and soybean futures enjoyed a strong move to the upside as USDA slashed 2024 corn and soybean yields among other notable data changes. We take a look at the reports and get perspective on our January USDA Roundtable today with DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing and Kristi Van Ahn-Kjeseth from Van Ahn & Company.

Plus, we get more price perspective and reaction to the WASDE, grain stocks and winter wheat seedings reports later in the show with Cory Bratland with AgMarket.net. Joins us for a jam packed episode as we close out the week with a lot to talk about.

Find more online at https://www.boltmarketingllc.com, https://www.vanahnco.com and https://www.agmarket.net.

USDA Releases WASDE, Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and More

(WASHINGTON D.C.) — Cuts to 2024 corn and soybeans yields, lower than expected corn and soybean ending stocks and a rise in winter wheat acres were all found in the latest data release from USDA on Friday.

The USDA released the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports at 11am CST. USDA cut 2024 corn yield down to 179.3 bushels per acre (bpa), down about 3.8 bushels, while soybean yield was dropped to 50.7 bpa, down about a bushel from previous estimates.

U.S. 2024-25 corn and soybean ending stocks fell to 1.540 billion and 380 million respectively while wheat stocks rose to 798 million. The corn and soybean ending stocks numbers were well below pre-report estimates and USDA December numbers while the wheat stocks number was up slightly from last month.

When it came to quarterly grain stocks numbers, corn came in at 12.074 billion bushels as of December 1st, 2024 while soybeans were 3.1 billion bushels and wheat was at 1.570 billion bushels. Those numbers were below pre-report estimates for corn and soybeans while slightly higher than expected for wheat.

On the global side, USDA made no changes to South American production estimates for Brazil and Argentina’s crops. They left Brazil corn 127 million metric tons (MMT) and soybeans at 169 mmt. For Argentina, they left corn production at 51 mmt and soybean production at 52 mmt on the latest report.

All winter wheat acres rose to 34.115 million on the annual Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report from USDA. Hard red wheat acres came in at 24 million, soft red wheat acres at 6.44 million and winter wheat acres at 3.64 million.

The season-average corn price received by producers was raised 15 cents to $4.25 per bushel. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is increased $10 to $310 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound. The season-average farm price for wheat is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $5.55 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast down 4.8 million tons to 1.494 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, reduced trade, and higher ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ghana, and Russia.

China corn production is raised to a record 294.9 million tons WASDE-656-2 based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Corn production is higher for Russia based on the latest information from Rosstat.

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024/25 include lower corn exports for the United States and Brazil. Corn imports are raised for Turkey but lowered for China, South Korea, and Japan. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher mostly reflecting an increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 293.3 million tons, are down 3.1 million.

Foreign 2024/25 oilseed production is lowered 0.3 million tons to 551.9 million, mainly on lower rapeseed production for India, Russia, and Uruguay, and lower soybean production for Russia and China. Partly offsetting is higher sunflower seed production for Russia and higher cottonseed production for China and Australia.

Global soybean exports are unchanged while global soybean crush is raised 1.9 million tons to 349.3 million. Crush is higher for Brazil on strong first-quarter soybean meal exports. The Iraq soybean balance sheet was also added to the database as soybean imports have risen over the past few years, which contributed to higher month-overmonth global crush.

Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 128.4 million tons, down 3.5 million, mainly on lower stocks for the United States and Brazil.

View the WASDE Report here: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/3t945q76s?locale=en

View Quarterly Grain Stocks here: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/xg94hp534

View Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings here: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/z890rt24s

Report recap and analysis with Arlan Suderman from StoneX can be found below:

Mexican Border Expected to Reopen for Feeder Cattle

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The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) suspended imports of live cattle and bison from Mexico on November 22, 2024, following the discovery of New World screwworm (NWS) near Mexico’s southern border. This action was taken to prevent the spread of NWS, a pest that poses significant risks to cattle health. Since the suspension, U.S. and Mexican authorities have worked together to develop enhanced screening measures for live animal imports.

Imports of Mexican feeder cattle are expected to partially resume during the week of January 20. This initial phase will proceed cautiously to allow for the implementation and testing of new safety protocols. Full-scale live animal imports are anticipated to follow at a later date as safety measures are refined and proven effective.

Several factors are influencing the reopening timeline. These include facility inspections, as protocol agreements are in place but require inspections and approvals for implementation. Additionally, animals will need to undergo a seven-day quarantine after health checks, ensuring they meet safety standards. The Santa Teresa, New Mexico, port has been prioritized for resuming operations, reflecting its importance in cross-border livestock trade.

The suspension has had a notable impact on the U.S. cattle market. An estimated 250,000 to 300,000 fewer cattle were imported during the suspension period, contributing to higher feeder cattle and calf prices in the United States. Despite these disruptions, live animal movements are expected to normalize following the initial reopening.