The Global Agricultural Productivity Report says the world’s agricultural productivity is consistently falling short of the target growth rate. Since 2011, productivity isn’t growing fast enough to hit the target growth rate required to sustainably meet global needs for agricultural outputs by 2050.

The report says total factor productivity growth continues to be strong in China and South Asia. However, Sub-Saharan Africa and the U.S. show especially low TFP growth. From 2011-2021, global TFP grew at an average rate of 1.14 percent yearly. To sustainably meet the agricultural needs of a growing global population by 2050, the GAP report says the world must now aim for 1.91 percent average annual TFP growth. If producers are able to access proven, appropriate, productivity-enhancing tools, there can be significant improvements in closing the TFP growth gap.

Lack of growth may result in over-reliance on unsustainable production practices and continued decline in TFP growth.

Sustainable aviation fuel is shaping up to be a big opportunity for renewable fuel.

Tad Hepner, vice president of strategy and innovation for the Renewable Fuels Association, talks about SAF. He says, “Sustainable aviation fuels are a category of renewable fuel and can be from fats, oils, and greases. There are also pathways that are available for the upgrading of alcohol to aviation fuel as well. So, it’s a category of jet fuel – so, all kinds, anything that uses Jet A (fuel) – airliners, military aircraft, anything that uses a Jet A compatible turbine engine.”

The U.S. is already producing some sustainable aviation fuel, but there’s a need for more infrastructure in place before the industry can grow.

Hepner says, “There’s between 16 and 18 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel produced annually. That’s a very small number. We are in the process of ramping up those pathways to produce more sustainable aviation fuel. It’s going to be a process, but I think with the recent passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, it’s given an opportunity for renewable fuels to play more of a part in the aviation transport sector.”

Corn and soybean farmers are going to see a lot of opportunity as the sustainable aviation fuel industry continues growing. Hepner says, “We’re going to see a little bit of increased production as far as ethanol if we’re talking about the alcohol to jet space. We’re going to see increased ethanol production and maybe a larger percentage of that may go towards sustainable aviation fuel production. With hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles playing a somewhat larger part in the future of over-the-road transportation, we think a certain amount of the ethanol, or the alcohol that’s used to produce ethanol fuels, is going to maybe pivot out a little bit into the civil aviation space.”

If demand increases for feedstock farmers produce, it can mean higher prices in the future.

Hepner adds, “I think there’s an opportunity for higher prices for farmers in the future. We’ve seen advances in agronomics to produce more crops on the same acre of land. But at the same time, we increase demand for these types of products, along with incentive structures, we’re going to see some opportunity for producers to take advantage of some of that as well.”

The U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index edged lower to 121.5 in September, the lowest level since March 2021. That index was down slightly from 121.6 in August. Prices for vegetable oils were down 3.9 percent, a second decline due to lower prices across palm, sunflower, soy, and rapeseed oils.

Dairy prices dropped 2.3 percent, a ninth consecutive fall. Meat costs dropped one percent, led by a drop in pork amid weak export demand from China and ample global export availabilities. Cereal costs increased one percent, including a 5.3 percent rise in coarse grain prices, led by a seven percent climb in maize prices. Also, sugar prices soared 9.8 percent to reach a high last seen in November 2010. The rise in sugar prices came from increasing concerns over a tighter global supply outlook in the upcoming 2023-2024 season and forecasts of increased production declines in Thailand and India.

August exports of U.S. pork were steady year-over-year, led by another tremendous performance in Mexico, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef exports were well below the large totals posted in August 2022 but showed improvement over July results.

August pork export highlights led by value record in Mexico

August pork exports totaled 226,519 metric tons (mt), steady with last year, while export value fell 1.5% to $649.5 million. Exports to leading market Mexico remained on a record pace and set a value record in August at $211.7 million. Exports also trended higher year-over-year to Japan, Canada, Central America, the Dominican Republic, Oceania and Taiwan.

Through the first eight months of 2023, pork exports were 11% above last year’s pace at 1.91 million mt, valued at $5.32 billion (up 9%).

“I cannot say enough about Mexico’s remarkable demand for U.S. pork and the critical revenue these exports drive for the U.S. industry,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “But the story of this year’s export growth extends well beyond Mexico, as demand is climbing in other Western Hemisphere destinations and the U.S. industry is also achieving gains in several Asia-Pacific markets.”

August beef exports below last year, but demand robust in Latin America

August beef exports totaled 109,000 mt, down 19% from last year – when export volume was the second highest on record – but a 6% increase over July. Export value was $883.9 million, down 15% year-over-year but 9% above July. Exports to Mexico continued to trend higher in August, shipments to Guatemala were the second highest on record and exports to South America were the largest in more than a year. August exports also increased year-over-year to Africa and the Dominican Republic. Exports to leading markets South Korea and Japan were well below last year, but improved over July.

For January through August, beef exports trailed last year’s record pace by 12% in volume (881,343 mt) and 19% in value ($6.69 billion).

“Beef exports certainly face significant headwinds, especially in our large Asian markets where foodservice has been slow to recover and consumer confidence is low due to the impact of rising prices and the strong U.S. dollar,” Halstrom explained. “But exports to South Korea and Japan did bounce back to some degree after a difficult July. Mexico continues to be a major bright spot for U.S. beef, and exports to other Western Hemisphere partners in Central and South America and the Dominican Republic also gained momentum in August.”

August lamb exports trend lower

August exports of U.S. lamb muscle cuts fell 14% from a year ago to 107 mt – the lowest volume this year. Export value was down 18% to $678,000. Through August, lamb muscle cut exports were down 3% to 1,371 mt, valued at just under $8 million (down 7%). January-August exports increased to the Netherlands Antilles, Panama and Canada but were lower to the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas. Shipments to Mexico were up slightly in volume but value trended lower.

A detailed summary of the January-August export results for U.S. beef, pork and lamb, including market-specific highlights, is available from the USMEF website.

Sixteen members of the House of Representatives pushed back against the Ending Agriculture Trade Suppression Act. The group sent a letter to House Ag Chair Glenn Thompson (R-PA) and Ranking Member David Scott (D-GA).

Groups backing the letter included the Organization for Competitive Markets, Competitive Markets Action, National Dairy Producers Organization, and others. “We applaud the representatives for taking a stand against the EATS Act that would sell out American agriculture to China,” says Marty Irby, president of Competitive Markets Action. “The Hinson-Marshall EATS Act is an assault on states’ rights that’s backed by Smithfield, a wholly owned Chinese corporation that continues to rake in billions of dollars by oppressing and exploiting American family farmers.”

The groups say if the EATS Act becomes law, it would invalidate hundreds of state and local agriculture laws that support family farmers and hundreds of laws relating to food safety and invasive pest control.

September brought mixed results for precipitation across the Missouri River Basin. Parts of Montana, North and South Dakota, and Nebraska received above-average rainfall, while the remainder of the upper basin and lower basin were below average.

September runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was 1.3 million acre-feet, 109 percent of the long-term average. The annual runoff forecast for the upper Missouri River Basin above Sioux City is 29.1-million-acre feet, 113 percent of average, and the same as last month’s forecast.

“Rainfall was above average in portions of the Upper Missouri River Basin during September,” says John Remus, chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. “Runoff was above average or near average in every reach except Sioux City, which was below average. He also says soil moisture conditions have improved in parts of the basin, but many parts remain abnormally dry.

The co-chairs of the Senate 4-H Caucus, Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and John Boozman (R-AR) applauded the Senate adoption of their resolution supporting the designation of “National 4-H Week.” The resolution was introduced by Stabenow and Boozman and supports the designation of October 1-7 as “National 4-H Week.”

It recognizes the important role of 4-H in youth development and education and encourages all citizens to recognize 4-H for the significant impact the organization and members have made and continue to make. The organization empowers young people with the skills needed to lead for a lifetime.

“As a former 4-H’er myself, I know that 4-H empowers young people to thrive in their communities and grow into future leaders through hands-on health, science, agriculture, and civic engagement projects,” Stabenow says. Boozman says, “I saw firsthand the tremendous impact 4-H has on young people while watching my three daughters get so much out of it.”

The Congress is paralyzed amid a House Speakership void and a looming new shutdown cliff next month, preventing action on spending and policy bills like the farm bill. The House can do little if any legislative work until it elects a new Speaker, while the Senate struggles to advance its own spending bills amid a shutdown threat looming again next month…

Senate GOP Whip John Thune (R-SD) said, “We have until November the 17th. I regret the fact that we’re not going to be here next week. I think the Senate ought to be here next week working on the appropriations bills because we have a short amount of time and a lot of work to get done.”

The House passed four spending bills but killed its USDA-FDA bill over farm program cuts and limits on a mail-order abortion drug. The Senate passed no spending bills–Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said “We’re working very hard in the Senate to get things done. We have passed 12 bills out of committee – bipartisan appropriations bills – and now we are working to get those bipartisan bills to the floor of the Senate.”

But that won’t matter until a new House Speaker’s picked and bills move again there to avert a shutdown. Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said “Well, I think the obvious answer is, we need to get a Speaker, and hopefully, we’ll get one by next week. And I’ll repeat what I said earlier which is, I think to do that job, you have to get rid of the ‘motion to vacate.’”

That allows a single House member to try to oust the Speaker, putting that person, McConnell says, in a “hammerlock.” House Ag Chair Glenn GT Thompson meantime told the Roll Call paper that McCarthy’s historic ouster may have “blown up any meaningful legislation” like the farm bill, and he’s even unsure an extension can make it through a “distracted and divided House.”

Drought has hit rural America hard during the last couple of years, hurting both crop and livestock operations. Paul Shadegg, senior vice president of real estate operations with Farmers National Company, says drought even puts a damper on farmland sales.

“There are pockets where it has impacted it, and not so much in the areas where one year of drought has happened. It’s in some of those areas that have experienced up to three years of drought. And there, we’re definitely seeing limited demand, but we’re also seeing limited properties being offered to the market too,” according to Shadegg.

But if the farmland is high quality, it will still sell well even in the middle of a drought.

He says, “If it’s good quality, even though it’s in a drought area, it’s still producing great demand. But there are some of those areas where it might be mid-to-lower quality, those are definitely struggling.”